Türkiye and the US are expected to focus on cooperating in trade, energy, and defense industries, as well as investments, during President Donald Trump’s second term.
The trade volume between the two countries reached an annual average of $21.6 billion in Trump’s first term.
The figure rose to $21.7 billion in 2020, $27.8 billion in 2021, and $32.1 billion in 2022, before falling to $30.7 billion in 2023.
Last year, bilateral trade increased by nearly 50% compared to 2020, totaling a record $32.5 billion, primarily driven by trade visits between the US and Türkiye. Turkish exports of machinery, mechanical devices, boilers, and jewelry stood out.
Türkiye aims to reach $100 billion in bilateral trade volume with the US, with Trump’s future policies and mutual visits expected to align relations with this target.
Mutual investments will also play a key role in the Türkiye-US economic agenda in Trump’s second term. Over 2,000 firms in Türkiye hold US capital.
Opportunities in transportation and communication are expected to grow as well. Flag carrier Turkish Airlines is preparing to increase the number of US destinations from 14 to 15 this spring.
Türkiye’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list and a decline in its credit default swap ratings are expected to boost the confidence of US investors.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs and their potential effects on Türkiye will remain an important focus in bilateral relations. Shortly after his reelection, Trump announced that his team is considering imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports starting Feb. 1.
Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat said in December that the ministry expects a reduction in customs duties for the textile sector and the removal of restrictions on steel exports.
Trump has also said he would declare a “national energy emergency.” The potential effects of this decision on energy cooperation between the two countries will be closely watched.
Türkiye and the US are expected to step up efforts to increase bilateral cooperation in energy and mining. The US-Türkiye Energy and Climate Dialogue, launched last year, aims to enhance cooperation in energy transformation and climate change.
However, Trump has also announced plans to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement.
American companies in space and technology sectors are expected to collaborate on new projects and sign investment deals with Türkiye in the coming years.
Türkiye made its first crewed space journeys from the US last year and launched its first indigenous communications satellite, Turksat 6A, into space from the US. Cooperation in space exploration between the two countries is expected to deepen.
The two countries also share the potential for increased cooperation in the defense industry. The US is anticipated to review its decision on Türkiye under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
On the tourism front, positive developments in bilateral relations are expected to attract a record number of US visitors to Türkiye.
Some 360,000 US tourists visited Türkiye in 2021, a figure that rose to over 1 million in 2022 and 1.3 million in 2023. As of the latest data, nearly 1.4 million US tourists visited Türkiye in the first 11 months of 2024.